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  • 10月 10 週四 201913:10
  • 道奇隊未來展望與調度分析——以理性角度切入

道奇隊未來展望與調度分析——以理性角度切入
幾個月前,我曾說過要在今年道奇打進世界大賽時寫一篇分析文,把去年和前年的遺憾掃去、把應得的榮耀拿回。這一切也似乎走在正軌上:柳賢振投出生涯年成為史上第一位亞洲防禦率王得主、配上王牌 Clayton Kershaw 和少主 Walker Buehler 形成道奇三本柱,還有老將 Rich Hill與季末轉牛棚的前田健太;打擊上道奇更擁有場均能攻下5.47分、國聯之冠的團隊。在拿下106勝打破隊史例行賽勝場紀錄後,道奇隊以逸待勞進入五戰三勝的國聯分區系列賽。沒想到,隨之而來的竟是休賽季......
“ 尋尋覓覓,冷冷清清,淒淒慘慘戚戚。乍暖還寒時候,最難將息。”
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  • 10月 10 週四 201913:10
  • 道奇隊未來展望與調度分析——以理性角度切入


幾個月前,我曾說過要在今年道奇打進世界大賽時寫一篇分析文,把去年和前年的遺憾掃去、把應得的榮耀拿回。這一切也似乎走在正軌上:柳賢振投出生涯年成為史上第一位亞洲防禦率王得主、配上王牌 Clayton Kershaw 和少主 Walker Buehler 形成道奇三本柱,還有老將 Rich Hill與季末轉牛棚的前田健太;打擊上道奇更擁有場均能攻下5.47分、國聯之冠的團隊。在拿下106勝打破隊史例行賽勝場紀錄後,道奇隊以逸待勞進入五戰三勝的國聯分區系列賽。沒想到,隨之而來的竟是休賽季......
“ 尋尋覓覓,冷冷清清,淒淒慘慘戚戚。乍暖還寒時候,最難將息。”
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  • 9月 21 週六 201909:21
  • 歡迎 Sefolosha,老將+防守 數據顯示火箭底薪超值

sefolosha12.jpg

大家都知道上賽季火箭隊無緣奪冠,最致命的就是鋒線一環的缺漏,然而,礙於薪資空間極不充裕,讓火箭與明星鋒線無緣。
為了嘗試把陣容最明顯的空缺做最後的補強,火箭在球隊迷你訓練營舉行前邀請了 Terrance Jones, Nick Young, Corey Brewer, Raymond Felton 和 Thabo Sefolosha 等球員。最終,火箭決定以一年老將底薪合約簽下 Thabo Sefolosha 。休斯頓無法讓昔日的雷霆三少再次聚首,但他們至少為 Harden 和 Westbrook 找來了當年的老大哥,瑞士球星 Thabo Sefolosha。
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  • 9月 21 週六 201909:21
  • 歡迎 Sefolosha,老將+防守 數據顯示火箭底薪超值

sefolosha12.jpg

大家都知道上賽季火箭隊無緣奪冠,最致命的就是鋒線一環的缺漏,然而,礙於薪資空間極不充裕,讓火箭與明星鋒線無緣。
為了嘗試把陣容最明顯的空缺做最後的補強,火箭在球隊迷你訓練營舉行前邀請了 Terrance Jones, Nick Young, Corey Brewer, Raymond Felton 和 Thabo Sefolosha 等球員。最終,火箭決定以一年老將底薪合約簽下 Thabo Sefolosha 。休斯頓無法讓昔日的雷霆三少再次聚首,但他們至少為 Harden 和 Westbrook 找來了當年的老大哥,瑞士球星 Thabo Sefolosha。
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  • 9月 13 週五 201909:13
  • Nenê Hilário 千萬年薪續約,揭秘 Morey 神來之筆

13.jpg
“Daryl Morey has always been viewed as one of the league’s best general managers, as he’s always proven to be adept at how to work the salary cap, despite the fact that the Rockets have always been a fringe taxpayer.”國外的一則新聞如此評論信手拈來便是神操作的 Daryl Morey.
    火箭在不久前宣布簽回37歲的老將Nenê Hilário,由於內線只有 Clint Capela 一個穩定的核心和 Tyson Chandler 這位快抵擋不住歲月侵蝕的前內線巨獸;而這幾年和火箭配合良好的 Nenê Hilário 又只需要一紙老將底薪,把他簽回來增加一下陣容的厚度、甚至能扮演奇兵作用,並不算是什麼稀罕的事。年輕的 Capela 有了"玄冥二老"當作後盾,更讓人期待他的成長。
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  • 9月 13 週五 201909:13
  • Nenê Hilário 千萬年薪續約,揭秘 Morey 神來之筆

13.jpg
“Daryl Morey has always been viewed as one of the league’s best general managers, as he’s always proven to be adept at how to work the salary cap, despite the fact that the Rockets have always been a fringe taxpayer.”國外的一則新聞如此評論信手拈來便是神操作的 Daryl Morey.
    火箭在不久前宣布簽回37歲的老將Nenê Hilário,由於內線只有 Clint Capela 一個穩定的核心和 Tyson Chandler 這位快抵擋不住歲月侵蝕的前內線巨獸;而這幾年和火箭配合良好的 Nenê Hilário 又只需要一紙老將底薪,把他簽回來增加一下陣容的厚度、甚至能扮演奇兵作用,並不算是什麼稀罕的事。年輕的 Capela 有了"玄冥二老"當作後盾,更讓人期待他的成長。
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  • 9月 12 週四 201909:12
  • 此瓜仍甜,為何無人摘?──談 Carmelo Anthony 與火箭之短暫邂逅

1.png
 
2019年NBA休賽季經過一翻軒然大波後總算恢復了寧靜,當大家都把焦點放在FIBA世界盃後,自由市場卻又傳來了新的消息:在BIG3 聯賽表現優異的老將 Joe Johnson 正式簽約活塞,重返NBA舞台,他也是借助在 BIG3 聯賽出色表現重新獲得NBA機會的第一人。隨著世界盃步入尾聲,新賽季的訓練營將在不久後正式開啟,自由球員找到球隊拋出橄欖枝的難度也越來越大;然而,年僅35歲的前全明星球員"甜瓜" Carmelo Anthony 仍未獲一紙合約,他的去向也牽動著許多球迷的心,畢竟在 Dwyane Wade 退休後,香蕉船成員已經少了一人,我們可不希望再少一位。然而,無論比較名氣還是實力,甜瓜都不比單打喬差,為何命運卻迥然不同呢?
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  • 9月 12 週四 201909:12
  • 此瓜仍甜,為何無人摘?──談 Carmelo Anthony 與火箭之短暫邂逅

1.png
 
2019年NBA休賽季經過一翻軒然大波後總算恢復了寧靜,當大家都把焦點放在FIBA世界盃後,自由市場卻又傳來了新的消息:在BIG3 聯賽表現優異的老將 Joe Johnson 正式簽約活塞,重返NBA舞台,他也是借助在 BIG3 聯賽出色表現重新獲得NBA機會的第一人。隨著世界盃步入尾聲,新賽季的訓練營將在不久後正式開啟,自由球員找到球隊拋出橄欖枝的難度也越來越大;然而,年僅35歲的前全明星球員"甜瓜" Carmelo Anthony 仍未獲一紙合約,他的去向也牽動著許多球迷的心,畢竟在 Dwyane Wade 退休後,香蕉船成員已經少了一人,我們可不希望再少一位。然而,無論比較名氣還是實力,甜瓜都不比單打喬差,為何命運卻迥然不同呢?
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  • 9月 08 週日 201916:25
  • Which kind of wingman does the Rockets need? (3 main points for a best fit SF)

 
A year ago, the Houston Rockets won a franchise record of 65 games and pushed the Golden State Warriors to a 3-2 lead in the Western Conference Finals. If there wasn't an injury to Chris Paul late in Game 5, the Rockets could get in the Finals and won the first champion since 1995.
「1995 rockets」的圖片搜尋結果
Yet, regrettably, over the offseason, the Rockets signed a four-year-deal that costs 160-million with Chris Paul who's performance seems overpaid in the new season. To top it all, they lost Trevor Ariza, a key piece of their run last year. They decided to essentially replace Ariza and Mbah a Moute with James Ennis and Carmelo Anthony, which failed miserably.
It was blatantly obvious early on in the season that Houston missed their 3D players and their assistant coach Jeff Bzdelik, as its defense lost vital pieces and the Rockets lost an edge as a team overall.
Houston ended up recovering to win only 53 games, but it fizzled out in the second round of the playoffs in a six-game loss to the Warriors.
You have to wonder how different the Rockets’ season would have been if Trevor Ariza, a top quality 3D player, hadn't departed.
Although, the downturn of Chris Paul is also a main reason that Rockets can't go further in the playoffs, but we have already reinforce our back court players by signing Austin Rivers in the mid-season. The Rockets offered him a mid-level exception but he chosed to sign a vet minimum deal for 2 years that only costs 2.1M per year. Even more, Rockets traded Chris Paul to the  Oklahoma Thunder, getting an younger All-Star point guard: "Mr. Triple-Double" Russell Westbrook.
Harden+Russ+Rivers+Gordon+Gerald Green there's no doubt that the Rockets have the best guards line-up in the league. So if the Rockets want to get a Champion, it's obviously that they need a Small-Forward or a Power-Forward (because PJ Tucker can also play SF)
Let's assume that Fertitta is willing to pay the luxury tax, than, what kind of SF does we really need? All-Star players are fantastic, yet we don't have enough budget. According to my analysis, there are 3 main factors that can scale if a small forward is suitable for the Rockets.
1. Toughness
Toughness is the most underrated commodity in the NBA because there isn't any data that can descript a players toughness. While talent certainly reigns supreme, toughness can make all the difference in a playoff series between two otherwise evenly matched teams. Take an example, in a 3-3 tied playoff series, game 7 clutch time, a tough player could get a priceless offensive rebound that change the game result, but a talented player couldn't.
Last year, Trevor Ariza brought that brand of toughness to the Rockets, and when Houston lost him to the Phoenix Suns in free agency, it is not only losts of a role player but they also lost a piece of the team’s beating heart.
While Chris Paul(Russell Westbrook now) and PJ Tucker are tough guys in their own right, but having Ariza around had made the Rockets even more grittier. It’s one of those things where Houston discernibly felt his absence.
Due to the increase of salary, there is no chance for Rockets to bring him back, yet we still need a strong SF player. Former Rockets Coach Rudy Tomjanovich had said:"Don't ever underestimate the heart of a championship." The heart means the toughness of the players, it also means the determination of winning the campaign.
2. More Shooting
The Rockets’ entire offensive strategy is predicated on floor spacing, former Rockets player Trevor Ariza provided even more of that for Mike D’Antoni.
Even though Ariza only shot 36.8 percent from the three-point line during his final season with the Rockets, which is just above the average, he is still indispensable.
Yet, why is Ariza irreplaceable? Let's see what Kevin Durant evaluate on defenders a year ago: "I want to be a player that no one can guard me. I'm very close to the goal but there are four players that can slow me down, they are Trevor Ariza, Paul George, Kawhi Leonard, and Joe Ingles." Trevor Ariza is one of the best small forward defender, Kobe Bryant's best partner and teammate.
According to the budget and the salary that the Rockets can provide, we have no chance to get a defender like Ariza, but there are some wingman that haven't get a contact. Which they have more accuracy and cold blood 3 pointers, and we can sign one of them by vet minimum contact.
But why, some say, a wingman that has his offense over his defence? There's a fantastic and fancy way to solve this question. As the saying goes, "The way for guarding a super-star does not exist. The only two things that we can do is, increase our defensive quality to limit your opponent's influence in his team, and choose a player that has self-offensive ability which can isolation on him to consume his fitness." We already have PJ Tucker, the best 1-on-1 defender (said by Durant few days ago), maybe, a better offensive player with defence above average is the answer for Rocket's wingman.
The mere threat of Ariza’s shooting ability at the four opens up the entire floor for the Rockets, and while Houston already has numerous shooters on its roster to begin with, adding a 3D player like Ariza or even better shooting would only make them more lethal in that category.
In today’s NBA, it’s about having as many shooters on the floor as possible, especially when you have a guy like James Harden constantly handling the ball. Surrounding Harden with countless shooters is always an ideal thought.
3. Defensive Versatility
That brings us to the biggest reason why the Rockets need a 3D player: defensive versatility.
A major factor in Houston’s success against the Warriors in 2018 was Ariza’s ability to switch everything on the perimeter, which nearly eliminated Golden State’s pick-and-roll with Stephen Curry.
Ariza has the length, the footspeed, and the instincts to seriously bother any of the elite point guards in the entire NBA, allowing him to completely blow up high screen-and-rolls.
The Dubs had a lot of trouble figuring the Rockets’ defense out last spring, and that had everything to do with the fact that Houston had the ability to switch everything with Ariza and Tucker.
And the main point is that no one can replace Ariza's defensive role, work, and ability, neither Danuel House nor Eric Gordon. Even though Eric Gordon has proved he's a fantastic defender facing Utah Jazz and Donovan Mitchell in the playoffs in the post-season, his height limited what he can do in defence. Because Tucker is only 6ft 6in (198cm), if Houston try to play Small Ball Lineup, which includes Tucker, Harden, Gordon, Rivers, Westbrook, then rebounding will turn in to a totally disaster. Can their speed and their isolation ability offset the nightmare in the painted area? That's a dilemma for the Rockets.
A wingman would provide the Rockets with the same versatility that they sorely missed in Games 5 and 6 of this past second round when Curry lit them up. Rumors from Rely Iko points out that the Rockets have a mind to sign Luc Mbah a Moute, he could be the second player that re-sign with the Rockets.
No matter what happens, Houston needs a wingman, come and get a Championship with us!! 🏆
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  • 9月 08 週日 201916:25
  • Which kind of wingman does the Rockets need? (3 main points for a best fit SF)

 
A year ago, the Houston Rockets won a franchise record of 65 games and pushed the Golden State Warriors to a 3-2 lead in the Western Conference Finals. If there wasn't an injury to Chris Paul late in Game 5, the Rockets could get in the Finals and won the first champion since 1995.
「1995 rockets」的圖片搜尋結果
Yet, regrettably, over the offseason, the Rockets signed a four-year-deal that costs 160-million with Chris Paul who's performance seems overpaid in the new season. To top it all, they lost Trevor Ariza, a key piece of their run last year. They decided to essentially replace Ariza and Mbah a Moute with James Ennis and Carmelo Anthony, which failed miserably.
It was blatantly obvious early on in the season that Houston missed their 3D players and their assistant coach Jeff Bzdelik, as its defense lost vital pieces and the Rockets lost an edge as a team overall.
Houston ended up recovering to win only 53 games, but it fizzled out in the second round of the playoffs in a six-game loss to the Warriors.
You have to wonder how different the Rockets’ season would have been if Trevor Ariza, a top quality 3D player, hadn't departed.
Although, the downturn of Chris Paul is also a main reason that Rockets can't go further in the playoffs, but we have already reinforce our back court players by signing Austin Rivers in the mid-season. The Rockets offered him a mid-level exception but he chosed to sign a vet minimum deal for 2 years that only costs 2.1M per year. Even more, Rockets traded Chris Paul to the  Oklahoma Thunder, getting an younger All-Star point guard: "Mr. Triple-Double" Russell Westbrook.
Harden+Russ+Rivers+Gordon+Gerald Green there's no doubt that the Rockets have the best guards line-up in the league. So if the Rockets want to get a Champion, it's obviously that they need a Small-Forward or a Power-Forward (because PJ Tucker can also play SF)
Let's assume that Fertitta is willing to pay the luxury tax, than, what kind of SF does we really need? All-Star players are fantastic, yet we don't have enough budget. According to my analysis, there are 3 main factors that can scale if a small forward is suitable for the Rockets.
1. Toughness
Toughness is the most underrated commodity in the NBA because there isn't any data that can descript a players toughness. While talent certainly reigns supreme, toughness can make all the difference in a playoff series between two otherwise evenly matched teams. Take an example, in a 3-3 tied playoff series, game 7 clutch time, a tough player could get a priceless offensive rebound that change the game result, but a talented player couldn't.
Last year, Trevor Ariza brought that brand of toughness to the Rockets, and when Houston lost him to the Phoenix Suns in free agency, it is not only losts of a role player but they also lost a piece of the team’s beating heart.
While Chris Paul(Russell Westbrook now) and PJ Tucker are tough guys in their own right, but having Ariza around had made the Rockets even more grittier. It’s one of those things where Houston discernibly felt his absence.
Due to the increase of salary, there is no chance for Rockets to bring him back, yet we still need a strong SF player. Former Rockets Coach Rudy Tomjanovich had said:"Don't ever underestimate the heart of a championship." The heart means the toughness of the players, it also means the determination of winning the campaign.
2. More Shooting
The Rockets’ entire offensive strategy is predicated on floor spacing, former Rockets player Trevor Ariza provided even more of that for Mike D’Antoni.
Even though Ariza only shot 36.8 percent from the three-point line during his final season with the Rockets, which is just above the average, he is still indispensable.
Yet, why is Ariza irreplaceable? Let's see what Kevin Durant evaluate on defenders a year ago: "I want to be a player that no one can guard me. I'm very close to the goal but there are four players that can slow me down, they are Trevor Ariza, Paul George, Kawhi Leonard, and Joe Ingles." Trevor Ariza is one of the best small forward defender, Kobe Bryant's best partner and teammate.
According to the budget and the salary that the Rockets can provide, we have no chance to get a defender like Ariza, but there are some wingman that haven't get a contact. Which they have more accuracy and cold blood 3 pointers, and we can sign one of them by vet minimum contact.
But why, some say, a wingman that has his offense over his defence? There's a fantastic and fancy way to solve this question. As the saying goes, "The way for guarding a super-star does not exist. The only two things that we can do is, increase our defensive quality to limit your opponent's influence in his team, and choose a player that has self-offensive ability which can isolation on him to consume his fitness." We already have PJ Tucker, the best 1-on-1 defender (said by Durant few days ago), maybe, a better offensive player with defence above average is the answer for Rocket's wingman.
The mere threat of Ariza’s shooting ability at the four opens up the entire floor for the Rockets, and while Houston already has numerous shooters on its roster to begin with, adding a 3D player like Ariza or even better shooting would only make them more lethal in that category.
In today’s NBA, it’s about having as many shooters on the floor as possible, especially when you have a guy like James Harden constantly handling the ball. Surrounding Harden with countless shooters is always an ideal thought.
3. Defensive Versatility
That brings us to the biggest reason why the Rockets need a 3D player: defensive versatility.
A major factor in Houston’s success against the Warriors in 2018 was Ariza’s ability to switch everything on the perimeter, which nearly eliminated Golden State’s pick-and-roll with Stephen Curry.
Ariza has the length, the footspeed, and the instincts to seriously bother any of the elite point guards in the entire NBA, allowing him to completely blow up high screen-and-rolls.
The Dubs had a lot of trouble figuring the Rockets’ defense out last spring, and that had everything to do with the fact that Houston had the ability to switch everything with Ariza and Tucker.
And the main point is that no one can replace Ariza's defensive role, work, and ability, neither Danuel House nor Eric Gordon. Even though Eric Gordon has proved he's a fantastic defender facing Utah Jazz and Donovan Mitchell in the playoffs in the post-season, his height limited what he can do in defence. Because Tucker is only 6ft 6in (198cm), if Houston try to play Small Ball Lineup, which includes Tucker, Harden, Gordon, Rivers, Westbrook, then rebounding will turn in to a totally disaster. Can their speed and their isolation ability offset the nightmare in the painted area? That's a dilemma for the Rockets.
A wingman would provide the Rockets with the same versatility that they sorely missed in Games 5 and 6 of this past second round when Curry lit them up. Rumors from Rely Iko points out that the Rockets have a mind to sign Luc Mbah a Moute, he could be the second player that re-sign with the Rockets.
No matter what happens, Houston needs a wingman, come and get a Championship with us!! 🏆
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